Cincinnati draw: Sabalenka lands Raducanu and Fernandez in her quarter

CINCINNATI -- Late on Tuesday evening, following a marathon day of qualifying action -- and quite a bit of cloudy skies and rain -- the Cincinnati Open revealed its draw for the second consecutive WTA 1000 event of the summer hard-court season.

World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka, the defending champion, is back in action as the top seed following her withdrawal from Montreal. World No. 2 Coco Gauff, No. 3 Iga Swiatek, and No. 4 Jessica Pegula -- who lost to Sabalenka in last year's final -- are also in the Queen City following earlier-than-expected losses in Canada. 

Adding to the intrigue in Cincy this year is the return of Venus Williams, who at 45 returned to the Hologic WTA Tour a couple of weeks ago in Washington, D.C.

Here's what to watch for in each quarter of the draw:

First Quarter

Sabalenka will be expected to get through this quarter unscathed, but it's anything but a cakewalk. She could face former US Open champion Emma Raducanu in her second match, and then either D.C. champion Leylah Fernandez or Liudmila Samsonova. Ninth-seeded Elena Rybakina, who will face rising star Victoria Mboko in the semifinals in Montreal, is also in this quarter. So, too, is Australian Open champion Madison Keys, who's always a threat on hard courts. 

Oh, yeah, and there's Venus. Will she be a factor? We can't wait to find out.

Notable first-round matches

Venus Williams (WC) vs. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro: This is a tough test for Venus, with the Spaniard coming off a quarterfinal run in Montreal. 

Danielle Collins vs. Taylor Townsend (WC): An interesting battle between Americans. Townsend leads the head to head 2-1, but they haven't played since 2018 (a win for Collins in Indian Wells).

Potential Quarterfinal Showdown

No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka vs. No. 6 Madison Keys: A rematch of the Australian Open final? We'll take it. Keys won that one, of course, but Sabalenka dominated their matchup in Indian Wells in March, dropping just one game.

Second Quarter

Swiatek tops this quarter, and her path to the quarters isn't particularly daunting. A potential second match against 25th-seeded Marta Kostyuk could be tricky, though. She looked awfully good in Montreal en route to the quarterfinals. And we could potentially have a Wimbledon rematch in the quarters, if fifth-seeded Amanda Anisimova holds steady.

Eighteen-year-old Victoria Mboko, who's having a magical run north of the border, could also make some noise. We'll see if she's rested enough to be a serious threat coming off her busy week.

Notable first-round match

Peyton Stearns vs. Yafan Wang: Stearns is a hometown kid, and the crowd will definitely be behind her. It would be a fun story if she's able to win a few matches. 

Potential Quarterfinal Showdown

No. 3 Iga Swiatek vs. No. 5 Amanda Anisimova: We all remember what happened at the All England Club -- the nightmarish (depending on who you rooted for) double bagel. If they meet again, it will be fascinating to see how Anisimova adjusts her approach and strategy, and if Swiatek is able to control the match yet again. That final will be on everyone's minds.

Third Quarter

A pair of Americans, Pegula and No. 11 Emma Navarro, top this quarter. Clara Tauson, who will take on Naomi Osaka in the Montreal semis, is also here. Like Mboko, will she have the energy to go on a deep run in consecutive 1000-level tournaments? 

The great Caroline Garcia, whose retirement seems imminent, received a wild card and will play Sonay Kartal in the first round. The 31-year-old Frenchwoman won this tournament back in 2022.

Notable first-round match

Caroline Garcia (WC) vs. Sonay Kartal: Can Garcia make a little run in what will almost certainly be her final Cincinnati Open? It will be Garcia's first time playing the British World No. 48, who made it to the fourth round of Wimbledon earlier this summer.

Potential Quarterfinal Showdown

No. 8 Emma Navarro vs. No. 4 Jessica Pegula: Pegula has taken their only two meetings, the most recent of which was a three-set win in the quarterfinals of Bad Homburg on grass. They met once before on hard courts, in Miami in 2024, and Pegula took it in straights.

Fourth Quarter

Gauff is staring down Jasmine Paolini in a potential quarterfinal. The World No. 6 hasn't played much of late, getting upset in the second round of Wimbledon and losing her only match in Montreal. It's a huge opportunity for the American to gain some momentum ahead of the US Open, where she famously won her first major two years ago. After a bye, Gauff could meet 32nd-seeded Dayana Yastremska in her second match, and potentially either Daria Kasatkina or Jelena Ostapenko after that.

A resurgent Osaka is also in this section, and if she looks anything like she's looked in Montreal this past week, she could do serious damage. How much will she have left in the tank after an extended run up north?

Notable first-round match

Alycia Parks vs. Barbora Krejcikova: Fun one here between the hard-serving Parks and a two-time Grand Slam champion. They met once three years ago, in Ostrava. The Czech won in straights in front of her home crowd.

Potential Quarterfinal Showdown

No. 7 Jasmine Paolini vs. No. 2 Coco Gauff: The crowd will certainly get up for this one. Gauff and Paolini have split four meetings, with the American taking the first two on hard courts, in 2021 and 2023. (The 2023 match was in Cincinnati.) Paolini has beaten Gauff twice this year, both times on clay.