Rybakina or Swiatek? One will leave Cincinnati with a statement win

For 176 consecutive weeks running, either Aryna Sabalenka or Iga Swiatek has been the No. 1 player in the PIF WTA Rankings. Since Ashleigh Barty retired in April 2022, they have won eight of the 14 Grand Slams.

For a week now, the No. 1-seeded Sabalenka and No. 3 Swiatek seemed to have been on a collision course to meet in the Sunday semifinals of the Cincinnati Open. But on Friday, No. 9 Elena Rybakina forcefully created an alternative scenario.

Her surprisingly swift and definitive 6-1, 6-4 victory over Sabalenka set up a rare opportunity to produce back-to-back victories over the game’s two most dominant players. Swiatek started the day with a 6-3, 6-4 victory over No. 28 Anna Kalinskaya.

In the nine previous matches against Rybakina, Swiatek holds a tenuous 5-4 edge.

We examine their prospects:

Advantage, Swiatek

After hitting some turbulence at the end of 2024, she’s back in form and ready for another run at No. 1.

The title at Wimbledon was something a surprise, but after a tidy defeat of Kalinskaya -- who she had never beaten -- Swiatek is into her third semifinal in seven tries at Cincinnati.

A win there would be another step toward the top of tennis, moving Swiatek into her first WTA 1000 final in 15 months -- when she beat Sabalenka in Rome. In the bigger picture, on the heels of her breakthrough victory at Wimbledon, a win would lock down a spot in the WTA Finals for the fifth straight year.

The biggest factor here: Swiatek has a huge edge in energy reserves. 

She received a third-round walkover when Marta Kostyuk withdrew with a lingering wrist injury. In the three matches she’s played, Swiatek’s only dropped 19 games. Against Kalinskaya, she served well and the backhand was on point.

Before meeting Sabalenka, Rybakina was extended to three sets against Renata Zarazua, Elise Mertens and Madison Keys -- and she specifically mentioned the need to recover in her on-court interview.

Rybakina came into the season with a 4-2 head-to-head edge on Swiatek, but has lost all three matches this year, at the United Cup in Australia, Doha and Roland Garros. That should give Swiatek a big advantage in confidence.

Swiatek has never been to the final in Cincinnati. She’d love to head into the US Open with that momentum.

Advantage, Rybakina

No player has navigated her way through these lazy, hazy days of North American summer better than Rybakina.

After knocking off the World No. 1, she’s already 10-2 in the hard-court swing. Those two losses came to the eventual champions in the semifinals of Washington, D.C., and Montreal, respectively, Leylah Fernandez and Victoria Mboko.

Over the past five years, Rybakina has scored seven wins against the World No. 1, defeating Swiatek four times and Sabalenka three. No one else has more in that span.

Coming in, Rybakina had lost seven of the previous 11 meetings with Sabalenka. This time, she was focused, determined and tenacious, winning in only 74 minutes.

“I’m happy with the serve, definitely,” Rybakina said in her on-court interview.

Rybakina fired 11 aces and hit only one double fault. Sabalenka had five break-point opportunities and didn’t convert one. Rybakina was a lethal 3-for-5.

Here is why Rybakina can beat anyone when she’s serving in rhythm:

Sabalenka wasn’t at her best Friday, but you knew she’d dig in and fight for the second set. Sure enough, with Rybakina serving at 4-3, Sabalenka forged a break point. Rybakina responded with a thunderous ace. Sabalenka, persevering, earned another break opportunity -- and Rybakina hit another ace.

In her sixth appearance, Rybakina has already recorded her best effort in Cincinnati. Now, she’d like to take it a step further.

Two years ago, Rybakina won her only two WTA 1000 tournaments, at Indian Wells and Rome -- and beat Swiatek on the way to both titles.

Rybakina has produced 23 career wins over Top 10 players. If she plays like she did Friday, expect win number 24.